Risk Detection Can Not Be Automated

No matter how many impressive white papers, including this recent one on Uncovering Surprising Supplier Behaviours Creating Organizational Risk by Atlantic Software Technologies, Inc. (an IBM Software Value Plus Business Partner). This white-paper recommends automation of inbound data classification to expedite throughput because automation of this function enables the organization to redeploy up to 40 percent of staff while increasing processing throughput as much as threefold. This is important because one cannot assess the true business value of a supplier relationship unless one understands his or her own personal relationship with the supplier. And, in order to really get a handle on the quality of the relationship, an organization has to be able to collect and analyze data points from the multiple impact points throughout [its] supply chain, both internally and externally, not just the ones that are easily visible and retrievable.

This is true. And, as the paper points out, if one does not understand the nature and quality of the relationship, one may never know that:

  • a supplier delay, just communicated to one of your employees, will impact multiple customers,
  • new international suppliers are being tapped to avoid single-sourcing risks, which might be causing quality risks, or
  • foreign nationals are handling sensitive information prohibited by export control laws (and this last risk could put an officer of the company behind bars).

But automating the processing and classification of unstructured data is not going to reduce risk. In reality, it's going to increase risk. In a nutshell, here's why.

Let's say that external testing found lead paint on a children's toy. If you've identified "lead paint" as a risk and set up a rule that alerts someone in Quality Control that a review is required, then you might feel you've mitigated the risk, as the document will come in, be sent to quality control, see that lead levels are present and well beyond tolerance, and tell Procurement to refuse the shipment. Problem solved. Right? Wrong!

What happens if the test was performed by an individual who speaks English as a second language, who trusts that all misspellings will be handled by Microsoft Word, and who mistypes "lead paint" as "led pant" in the report. Both are legal English words, and if you turn grammar checking off, Microsoft Word will not complain. Is the automated classifier going to catch this? Not likely. While you may remember to program in one or two misspellings, like "led paint", or an abbreviation, like "ld pnt", you are not going to come up with every possible misspelling, and you're not going to want to because, if you include too many, you'll get a lot of false positives (and misclassifications). If this is a product where tolerance is 0, and the test results are not acted on in time, not only could you be stuck with a multi-million dollar inventory that can't be sold, but if a product makes it onto shelves, gets bought, and someone gets sick, that's a lawsuit that could cost more than what it cost to develop and manufacture the first batch of products.

Now, there's nothing wrong with deploying such technology to scan documents to look for documents of interest that should be reviewed, but it should not be the foundation of any risk management strategy. Good risk management entails identifying relevant risks and having a mechanism for anyone to report when a risk of interest may be materializing. Then someone knowledgeable about the risk reviews the situation and makes the call.

 

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Comments

  • 8/29/2011 8:26 AM Mark DeLuca wrote:
    I'll take issue with your post because mitigate means to lessen, not to eliminate:

    lessen something: to make something less harsh, severe, or violent

    If someone misspells the word lead then yes this risk could be missed. However, if the word is not misspelled then in the process that you describe the risk would be caught. Given the choice any reasonable person would probably put in the control because although it is not flawless, it will catch the majority of incidents and thus lessen or mitigate risk.

    Even still your point is worthwhile in that it makes sense to have a way to report risks of interest which will in turn be reviewed by a knowledgeable person.
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  • 9/7/2011 4:52 PM Supply Times wrote:
    While I think the example of "lead paint" being spelled incorrectly is a very large leap for the context of this post, it does bring up a clear and distinct issue when finding international sourcing or procurement companies. At the very least, we can take this as a warning to be very aware of language and cultural barriers that exist and can cause misunderstandings when working in an international supply network.
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